The article by Elena Dal Maso, journalist of MF / Milano Finanza, on the accounts of the first two German banks Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank
Both banks are suffering today on the Dax in Frankfurt. On the one hand, in recent days, political sources from Berlin have made it known that the government has never lost interest in a merger between the first two German banks and that it is studying, Handelsblatt wrote, a maneuver to limit the fiscal impact of company in the event of a merger.
In the meantime, Handelsblatt also reported the indiscretion that the royal family of Qatar, which already has 6.1% in their hands through direct ownership of Deutsche Bank, but could rise almost 10% thanks to derivatives, would be interested in increasing l investment in the bank. In these hours, the Reuters agency from Frankfurt threw water on the fire, thus cooling expectations on the possibility of an increase in the principality’s stake in Deutsche Bank. At least for now. FARLOCCHI RUMORS ON QATAR AND DEUTSCHE BANK
In fact, it would be only a matter of hypotheses. A spokesperson for the Qatar Financial Center told the agency that the sovereign fund invests and will continue to invest in the German market, adding that the news about the intention to increase the stake in Deutsche Bank is based on unfounded assumptions, not on facts or statements. direct. The German financial newspaper Handelsblatt wrote on Sunday that Qatar is considering increasing its stake in the German bank. “We will invest in a large financial institution in Germany. WHAT QATARIANS SAY
It was discussed on the sidelines of the Doha Forum and will be announced shortly, ”Yousuf Mohamed Al-Jaida, CEO of Qatar Financial Center, told Handelsblatt. Al-Jaida did not want to name the company, but confirmed that it is an institution in which Qatar is already involved, writes Handelsblatt. Hence the deduction that it may be Deutsche Bank. THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT’S PROJECT
Meanwhile, more and more news is emerging from Germany that the government is trying to put a stop to possible acquisitions of companies deemed important or sensitive by foreign investors. WHAT ANALYSTS SAY ABOUT DEUTSCHE BANK
The Credit Suisse analysts who cut Deutsche Bank’s target price from 9.5 to 9 euros per share, in any case well above the 7.78 euros to which the stock has traveled in recent days, fit into all this. While believing that a merger is not concretely in sight, given the complexity for Deutsche Bank to conclude the acquisition of Post Bank and bring the group into profit, the brokers have prepared an indicative table on the possible effects of the merger between the first and the second German bank, both listed on the Dax. COMPARISONS BETWEEN COMMERZBANK AND DEUTSCHE BANK ON THE REVENUE FRONT
The calculations show revenues of 35.3 billion euros (25.8 billion for Deutsche Bank, 8.9 billion for Commerzbank), an overall cost cut of 7% to 26.52 billion euros and a proforma net profit by 2020. of 4.2 billion. It would have been 3 billion (1.73 for Deutsche Bank, 1.27 for Commerzbank) aggregating the two banks, not counting the benefits from savings. HOW ARE THE DEBTS OF THE TWO BANKS
The Cet 1 ratio would settle at 13.7% (13.6% of DB, 13.7% of Commerz), while the leverage (total debt, including the bank’s bond issue, therefore funding) after the merger would touch 1,846 billion euros (1,315 billion DB, 531.13 billion Commerz). The combined eps (earning per share) would be 0.96 and the incremental value of the merger equal to 20%, with a price / tangible book value paid (paid) of 0.6.
Article published on MF / Milano Finanza
