While the Ftse Mib lost 0.8%, Unicredit shares lost 0.15% to 11.98 euros per share. The group led by the CEO, Andrea Orcel, who is defining the acquisition of a perimeter of Mps with Mef, will publish the accounts for the third quarter on October 28th before the opening of the markets. These will be the first results that take into account the new organizational reporting (4 Business Units instead of 5), for Banca Akros it will be a positive quarter that will close with a net profit of 805 million euros, up 18% year on year thanks to the asset quality. Analysts today revise upward the estimated adjusted earnings per share expected in 2021 from 1.51 to 1.54 euros, from 1.63 to 1.71 euros in 2022 and from 1.8 to 1.84 euros in 2023 And they increase the target price on the stock from 11.4 to 12.1 euro, confirming the neutral opinion.
According to analysts, the formation of NPLs should have been contained, also thanks to the extension of the moratorium in Italy until the end of the year and the latest guidance relating to the cost of risk below 50 basis points (the underlying one at 40 basis points), which could be further improved according to Banca Akros which expects loan write-downs of 482 million in the quarter, 35% less year on year. At an operating level, total revenues are seen to decline by 2% on 2020 to 4.264 billion euros due to lower profits from trading (350 million euros compared to 455 million in the third quarter of 2020), while the strong performance expected of net commissions ( + 10.5% year on year to 1.624 billion) “would compensate for the poor evolution of margins” (net interest income, -4.3% on 2020 to 2.2 billion euro).
Operating costs are expected to rise 1.6% year-on-year to 2.448 billion, leading to an expected gross operating margin (GOM) of 1.816 billion, down 6.6% on 2020, with a cost-to-income ratio up by 2 percentage points to 57.4%. Starting with a capital strength ratio of 16.1% phased-in and 15.5% fully-loaded at the end of the second quarter, Banca Akros expects an impact of around 30 basis points this quarter due to the “regulatory headwinds” “.
On the MPS front, the secretary general of Fabi, Lando Maria Sileoni, explained to Class Cnbc that “the negotiations underway between the State and Unicredit on Monte dei Paschi di Siena should be well advanced. All the considerations that have been made, in recent weeks, they do not take into account the fact that in the end it will be the European Central Bank that will decide which, if the negotiation reaches a positive conclusion, will give the green light “. If, on the other hand, the negotiation were to skip, added Sileoni, “the ECB would intervene anyway. In short, everyone reckons without the landlord and the landlord and the ECB itself”.
The secretary believes that, both as regards the corporate aspects and those related to employment, “everyone should find an agreement as soon as possible”. Sileoni reiterates that “for the workers of MPS it was time to put an end to the sacrifices they have made in recent years and I reiterated that the first dismissal we would have blocked the sector”. But this possibility, for Fabi, “is to be excluded because we have our social safety net, the redundancy fund, with which we have always managed banking crises and restructuring only with retirements and early retirements on a voluntary basis”, concluded Sileoni. (All rights reserved)

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