The update of A2A’s 2021-2030 strategic plan approved overnight provides for an even more ambitious growth in terms of ebitda than last year, more than doubled compared to the average of recent years, going from around 1.4 billion euros in 2021 to about 2.9 billion by 2030, with an average annual increase in 2020-2030 of 9%. The EBITDA of the Energy Business Unit is expected to increase by 100%, going from 600 million in 2021 to around 1.2 billion in 2030, mainly thanks to the contribution of the new Fer capacity (+3.9 GW compared to 2020) and to increase in the customer base (+ 150% power customers and + 25% gas customers compared to 2021), also following the end of the protected market. Group net profit, excluding non-recurring items, is also destined to grow significantly,
The growth of the Environment Business Unit is driven by both the construction and the acquisition of treatment plants aimed at closing the waste cycle, strengthening the recovery of materials and energy. EBITDA is expected to grow from € 0.3 billion in 2021 to € 0.85 billion in 2030. Finally, in the Smart Infrastructures Business Unit, EBITDA is growing from € 0.5 billion in 2021 to 0 , 89 billion euros in 2030.
The group chaired by Marco Patuano aims at 18 billion in investments in 10 years (+2 billion compared to the previous plan), of which 7 for the circular economy and 11 for the energy transition. The business plan strengthens the commitment to decarbonisation with a further two billion investments,
The update of the 2021-2030 Plan, despite the increase in investments, confirms the dividend distribution targets to shareholders: at least 8.2 cents per share on the 2021 profit, minimum 8.5 cents per share on 2022 and base of 8.7 cents on 2023 For the following years, a minimum growth of 3% per year is confirmed.
About 90% of investments are in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and around 70% of the European Taxonomy. A2A has decided to bring forward the zero emissions target by 10 years. By 2040 the group will achieve carbon neutrality on direct and indirect emissions.
The main new elements of the Plan update are part of the global objectives of reducing the carbon footprint. About 30% of CO2 emissions in Italy derive from the mobility sector. Reducing CO2 emissions from the transport of goods and people will be possible with an increasingly significant penetration of electric cars and heavy vehicles powered by hydrogen and bio-LNG. In 2021, 8% of cars sold in Italy were electric (pure and plug-in hybrids) and a percentage destined to grow in the coming years. To encourage the adoption of this mobility model
sustainable A2A has quadrupled the installation of infrastructures envisaged compared to the previous Plan: 24 thousand electric recharging points by 2030 with a relative market share in Italy of 15-20%. In this context of the energy transition, A2A increases investments by 15% to 11 billion with an EBITDA target of 1.7 billion euros by 2030:
In the circular economy, A2A’s updated plan has revised upwards all the economic and business. In this segment, investments, up 18% to 7 billion with an EBITDA target of 1.2 billion, are destined for activities to close the waste cycle, those for the recovery of waste heat for the benefit of district heating and the integrated water.
For Renato Mazzoncini, CEO of A2A, “the update of the plan foresees to bring forward the common goal of zero emissions by 10 years, further expand our presence in Italy and establish new and even more ambitious business targets. We aim to be protagonists of the the country’s decarbonisation process, thanks to our ability to guarantee both renewable electricity and sustainable molecules such as hydrogen and biomethane, in line with the provisions of European directives “.
And during the presentation to the market, the CEO said that with the update of the plan to 2030, a
new life begins for A2A: from a local multi-utility to a national player. “The acquisitions closed in the South lead us to be a player
national “, he said.” We can announce a third life of A2A: from the municipal area to the regional one and now a national development that is very strong. ”
However, the stock market today suffers and one hour after opening it drops by 1 , 09% at 1.72 euros. “The preliminary EBITDA for 2021 and the targets for 2023 are better than expected, we believe thanks to the scenario effect, that is to the energy prices, and the impacts of the acquisitions. We believe net profit guidance for 2022 is worsening compared to 2021 due to higher depreciation and the impacts of the acquisitions “, notes Equita Sim, confirming the buy opinion and the target price of € 1.95.
Add unchanged instead by Intesa Sanpaolo with target price of 1.98 euros. According to experts, the update of the plan implies an acceleration of cumulative investments in the light of greater operating performance thanks also to the increase in capacity in renewables, also as a result of the recent deal with Ardian, generation in Italy and
Spain and the M&A in the waste segment. Intesa Sanpaolo also positively views the growth of the targets in the short
term, supported by a supportive energy scenario.
Mediobanca Securities, on the other hand, confirms a neutral rating and 1.7 euro target price, noting that the group’s business plan includes a considerable increase in investments, while the average annual growth rate of ebitda and net profit by 2030 remain fairly in line with the previous plan. In the short term, Mediobanca again specifies, the numbers for 2021 are beyond consensus, while the net profit for 2022 is 5% lower and that for 2023 is in line. (All rights reserved)
